NEW
DELHI: A crestfallen government, despite winning the July 22 trust vote, is now
hedging its bets on a possible revival of monsoon in central and south India as
an antidote to the trotting inflation through a magic boost in overall
agricultural
production.
Monsoon has now
entered a make-or-break phase in the deficient regions even though the Met
office expects some cheer by July-end. Officials said the downpour has been
"quite poor" compared to the same period last year but "better days should lie
ahead".
During June 1-July 23
period, overall rainfall has been 2% lower than the long period average (LPA)
with the deficiency being a whopping 32% and 15% over South Peninsula and
Central India respectively.
Of
the country's 36 meteorological sub-divisions, 15 recorded deficient or scanty
rainfall up to July 23. Worst hit were Marathwada (62% below LPA), north
interior Karnataka (53%), madhya Maharashtra (49%), Kerala (43%), coastal
Karnataka (38%), Gujarat (36%) and Vidarbha
(35%).
Monsoon rains are
critical for the production of paddy, oilseeds, corn and cotton. If the
situation does not revive, higher imports of food items, particularly edible
oil, would become necessary, aggravating the inflation spiral in the months to
come, besides making futures trading run
amok.
Met office forecast a
southward shift of monsoon with a low-pressure area likely to form over
west-central and adjoining north-west Bay of Bengal around July 27. "This is a
signal for revival of monsoon activity along the west coast and over central and
adjoining peninsular India," it said. Rainfall intensity is also likely to
improve in cotton-growing Maharashtra and Gujarat, besides the rice bowls of
Andhra Pradesh.
The story in
North India, Gangetic plain, Himalayan foothills and the northeast, however,
hasn't been so bad although floods have wreaked havoc in some states due to
excessive rain. The ongoing rainfall in the north - its intensity was
unexpectedly high in most parts of Uttar Pradesh - is likely to decrease in the
coming days. Bihar, Haryana, Punjab,
Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and
Kashmir have recorded medium to heavy downpour, but Kerala has possibly received
the poorest rainfall of the season with officials describing the situation in
the state as "bad". Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have done marginally
better.
"We hope that better
days lie ahead as far as agriculture is concerned. The situation is already
improving in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Western Coast and Rajasthan," a senior
official of India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.